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Archive for March 12th, 2012

I was scheduled to participate in a panel on Social Media and ROI at the #sxswi conference this week. My schedule being what it is, I couldn’t be in two places at once and had to make the painful decision last week of cancelling my trip to Austin altogether. As much as I was looking forward to finally making it to Sx and being on this panel, priorities are priorities. Muchas gracias to the panel’s organizers for having invited me to participate. In spite of what I am about to say here, I am very grateful to them.

Anyway. After days of reading tweet after tweet about how wonderful and fun SxSWi was, how much of a blast everyone was having, seeing pictures of some of my favorite people meeting up and smiling big for the camera, it was with a heavy heart that I logged into Tweetdeck for the #sxsmroi session Monday afternoon, in the hopes of at least being there from a distance. My expectations:  A great discussion, a professional discussion, an intelligent discussion about ROI and Social Media. After all, it’s 2012, right? This should be a mature topic. I released the book last year, the various presentations I put together on the subject have made their way around the globe, my blog posts have been read and read again, shared, retweeted and whatnot. ROI when it comes to social media is devastatingly simple to understand. Right?

I guess not. What I found myself confronted with instead of the intelligent session I expected was… a complete disaster.  I knew we were in trouble when I started seeing eager tweets about ROI being tied to “Return on Efficiency” less than 3 minutes from its start.

Let me give you a taste of some of the brilliant “insights” retweeted from this unfortunate session:

What’s the ROI of NOT engaging in SM? 

Asking if there is ROI for Social Media is like asking if there is an ROI of the telephone or a pencil.

If social is done well it builds trust. if done really well, it is true trust. then 2-way convo: speed and reach. 

There is an answer for CFO – if social has done well, it builds trust.

Seems like the new question is “What’s the ROI on coming up with a formula for ROI?

That’s right: The same nonsense social media “gurus” were selling on their blogs and all up and down the social media “speaking circuit” back in 2008, when social media started being integrated into business models.

So… 2008 goes by.

2009 goes by.

2010 goes by.

2011 goes by.

We are now in 2012. How is it that the same bullshit is still being spewed as “insight” on a #sxswi panel on ROI? How does this happen?

I know I couldn’t be there so I bear some of the responsibility, but I have to ask: Where are the professionals? Surely, we can find 5 people for a panel on Social Media and ROI who know what the hell they are talking about, right? I don’t even mean “experts.” I mean just normal professionals with a fair fluency on the subject, who can speak intelligently about what it is, how it is calculated, and even offer concrete examples to illustrate how companies are determining the ROI of key activities and channels on a specific timeline.

Just 5 or 6 people. That’s all.

No? Too hard? Really?

What happens if I get hit by a car tomorrow? Nobody can handle this topic? I don’t buy that. Where are the professionals? Sound off. Please, for the love of puppies, raise your hands and step forward. This crap needs to stop. Now. Today. And I can’t be the one carrying this flag. (Unless by some miracle, my book finally starts making its way to every single desk in Corporate America, which would be fine too. #NotHappening)

Back to more of the session’s brilliant “insights” on ROI and Social media. Brace yourselves for the worst because it is coming:

Social doesn’t always need to be quantified. Its not a spreadsheet metric only – trust, relationships, advocacy. 

Social extends beyond traditional ROI and you can’t quantify it on a spreadsheet.

You can’t put love and trust into a chart. Why? Because love and trust defies logical reasoning.

Because we lied and told people digital was measurable.

How do you put trust and love into a spreadsheet? silence 

Measuring digital is different because we’re the first generation doing it. 

We’re getting so granular with SM and trying to label it with a quantifiable ROI, that we’re missing the overall impact of it.

You don’t measure activity, you measure results. 

The minute we standardize in #smroi, we will fail.

Innovation is miles ahead of where we are in terms of measuring ROI.

Don’t spend all of your money trying to measure social ROI.

There’s no ROI for measuring ROI – it’s just too difficult

Just because I can measure something doesn’t mean I should.

That was what was being retweeted from a #sxswi panel on ROI. Maybe it should have been called “beating around the bush of #smROI for the fourth year in a row.”

It isn’t surprising then that about twenty minutes into the session, a lot of the back-channel chatter started looking a lot like this:

Did I really just hear someone at #sxsmroi say a lot of data when trying to quantify social ROI is unnecessary? …On to another session…

This panel could benefit by examples of ROI measurement. Some people in this room probably have to report that. #SxSMROI

I am shocked that the #SocialMediaROI panel at #SXSW isn’t giving people the real “How To Measure SM ROI” they came for. #sxsmroi

Have to wonder who the #sxsmroi panel is talking to. Definitely not business owners or people who sign the checks.

I think I’m glad I’m not at #sxsmroi because it’s not a ROI panel. Maybe call it SM Value or SM Efficiency panel, but it’s not a ROI panel.

Sorry #sxsmroi panel, you can’t send people out of the room w message that social isn’t measurable. It is and it’s critical

Disappointing panel at #SXSMROI same song & dance we’ve been hearing for years.

People walking out. You really think they were going to magically tell you how to measure SM ROI? #sxsmroi

In a nutshell.

In case you think that my having been there would have made a difference, think again. I wouldn’t have endured 45 minutes of that. Though I have never walked off during a panel at any conference anywhere, be assured that I would have pulled off my mic and walked out of this one. I would much rather meet up with people outside the session and answer their ROI questions directly (my purpose for attending events like this) than endure almost an hour of complete and utter bullshit that has no place at a conference the scale of #sxswi.

No offense to the couple of pros who were on the panel and whose comments were either not retweeted at all or simply not mentioned in this post. A few solitary bits of general, elementary ROI wisdom did find their way through the barrage of bullshit, but not nearly enough and certainly not driven by either adequate vigor or accompanied by concrete examples. So understand that I am not taking a blowtorch to the entire panel but rather to the balance of its outcome.

Here’s what really disappoints me: A full complement of professionals (with or without me) shouldn’t be that difficult to come up with right?  There shouldn’t have been a single dumbass comment retweeted from this session. Not one. So I ask again: Where are the professionals?

I am appalled.

As for those of you who walked away from that panel thinking it was wonderful, that Social Media ROI is a myth, channel-optional or even elastic enough to mean Return on Engagement, Return on Efficiency or Return on Conversation, do yourselves a favor: Search for every post containing the term ROI (or R.O.I.) on this blog and start there. Once you start to get what #smROI actually is and isn’t, feel free to spend $10 or $15 on the #smROI book (link below). That’s all you need to get started. The rest will come naturally once you start applying what you’ve learned here to the real world.

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Here it is. A whole book on how to make social media work from a business standpoint. ROI is covered, along with a lot of process elements that tie back to it. If your favorite social business “expert” doesn’t seem to get this stuff yet, don’t feel bad about sending them a copy. Knowledge is never a bad gift.

CEO-Read  –  Amazon.com  –  www.smroi.net  –  Barnes & Noble  –  Que

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This isn’t brand new data, but I came across it last week and thought it would be cool to share here. No need for me to write a 30,000 word blog post or white paper on what it all means. I will give you the main bullets but the graphics kind of speak for themselves. You should be able to connect the dots all on your own.

Above: Global Media Consumption per week 1900-2020. What do you see?

1. The main line: Global media consumption doubles every 25 years or so. Bear in mind that there are only 24 hours in a day, so that curve eventually levels off (even with second and third screens… but we won’t get into that today).

2. The nature of media is changing: 5 years ago, 50% of media was digital. In 8 years, that ratio will be 80%. Think about that and what it means.

3. Individual performance of specific media:

Print is steadily shrinking and has been since the 1940s, contrary to popular lore about the internet killing print. This is not a new phenomenon. It’s accelerating, sure, but it isn’t new. TV started that trend long before most of us were born.

Analogue TV and radio formats have been replaced by digital formats. Radio has been relatively flat for a very long time. TV saw enormous growth from 1940 to 1980 but has been relatively flat ever since. Note that this graph doesn’t look at the growth of channels (channel proliferation and fragmentation, but consumption only. Adding 100 new TV and radio channels per day wouldn’t affect consumption).

Outdoor has been relatively flat for over a decade, as has been cinema.

So what’s growing? You already know: Internet, mobile (wireless) and games.

Speaking of mobile:

What this graph tells us:

Mobile cellular subscriptions are steadily increasing worldwide each year, as is the number of internet users. Active mobile broadband subscriptions are also growing quickly. That’s the black bar on the graph. It isn’t even there in 2006 but by 2010, it already reaches about 1 billion.

What’s flat (or close to flat?) Fixed broadband subscriptions and fixed telephone lines.

What does this graph show us?

1. Look at the relationship between internet users (green) vs. Fixed broadband subscriptions. What do you see? There are far more internet users than broadband subscriptions. Part of the reason for that is that one broadband subscription may serve an entire household or office, but there is more to it than that: Mobile broadband. More and more people now access the web through mobile devices. It isn’t to say that PCs are dead, but this indicates a pretty key shift in how people (it’s okay to call ourselves consumers) now access content and information.

2. Look at the relationship between fixed and mobile broadband (pink and black, respectively). In 2006, fixed broadband was it. By 2008, they were essentially tied. By 2011, mobile broadband was double the size of fixed broadband.

Bear in mind: Mobile broadband subscription = 1 user. Fixed broadband = several users. It’s simple math. Regardless of the apples to oranges comparison, growth is growth. Shift is shift. 75% of media will be digital in just 4 years. 80% of it will be digital in 8 years. Mobile devices are becoming the interfaces of choice for digital content. If you aren’t building your business processes and designing your content with this in mind, don’t blame “the economy” for what is about to happen to your market share.

Now let’s look at a quick graph on the relationship between age and internet use in developing economies vs. developed economies:

 Now look at this:

See the change in just 5 years?

Here’s another one that should make you think a bit, especially if your company has a global footprint:

Three things:

1. Globally, 45% of internet users (regardless of the interface) are under the age of 25. Though it may be obvious to most of you, don’t take for granted that every CEO and CMO has figured this out yet: It doesn’t matter if your typical customer is mostly over the age of 35. In 10 years, those 25-year-olds will be potential customers and they will expect you to do business the way they want you to do business. Better start working on them now. And while you’re at it, better start working on bringing every aspect of your business and its marketing/communications up to speed. You wouldn’t believe how many senior executives completely miss this.

2. Developing economies have some catching up to do when it comes to internet use, but they are quickly closing the gap.

3. Look at the growth of 3G penetration between 2009 and 2014: From 39% to 92% in Western Europe. From 9% to 40% in Eastern Europe. From 38% to 74% in North America. Japan hits 100% two years from now. 100%. (Japan is the model, by the way.) Even developing regions like Africa, the middle East and AsiaPac (minus Japan) are quadrupling 3G mobile penetration in the next two years. We are moving towards 80% of all media being digital. Mobile devices are increasingly becoming the digital interface of choice for consumers. Connect the dots.

Here’s a thought if you still don’t understand how this applies to your business: Follow the money. If it isn’t clear why any of this matters or even where things are going, look no further than shifts in advertising budgets in relation to digital and other media:

What do you see? Ad spend is flat in print (actually shrinking a bit) while digital ad spend is steadily growing. Every graph that compares online ad spend to other types of media ad spend look basically like this. If you don’t understand why this is happening, the graphs further up the page will help connect the dots.

Here’s another graph that ought to make you think about how your media planning strategy should already be shifting:

 What this graph shows is the point where online video wins the attention war and TV begins to recede. Same content but different interface, different medium, different level of user control. 2019 will be here before you know it. What are you doing today to prepare for the television set’s Waterloo? From media buying to content production and distribution, are you sitting on your hands talking to analysts about future trends or are you staffing up with people who understand this and know how to prepare you for it?

Let’s continue with today’s #graphfest. This ought to shed some light on what is happening on the interface front:

The 411: Desktop PCs are flat and mobile PCs (laptops) are growing. No surprise there. Also no surprise as to the growth of smart phones and tablets. But check this out:

Smart phones sales overtook desktop PC sales in 2008 and will take over mobile PC (laptop) sales in 2013. That’s next year.

Tablet sales will overtake desktop PC sales (that boxy thing taking up space in your employees’ cubicles) next year.

If you are an executive, go for a walk around your offices and ask yourself: What decade are you operating in? In fact… What century are you operating in? Look at your business processes, internal collaboration, media planning and productivity. Go spend a day at a media conference or tour your local coffee shops. Ask yourself if your business is operating in a bubble or if it is as technologically and strategically competitive as it could be. Be honest with yourself. Tip: If the average twenty-something hipster lounging around at Starbucks is better equipped than your average middle manager or business development team, the answer is no. Here’s another one: If your business isn’t creating apps or content specifically designed for these new devices (let alone social channels), the answer is also categorically no.

Every time I run into an executive working on a presentation on a plane, I look at what kind of tech they use. Nothing against Lenovo and IBM (great companies) but whenever I see one of those boxy black thinkpad laptops with the little red button in the middle of the keyboard, I cringe for that poor sap whose boss forces to work on outdated tools. It’s 2012. Shape up. You don’t see 20-year old tech winning on the racetrack, the field, the court or the links, right? Business is no different from sports in that regard: 20-year-old tech doesn’t give anyone an advantage. All it does is make you less competitive. Stop doing that to yourself. Move on. Look forward, see what’s coming and get unstuck.

Here’s a thought: When the world is changing faster than you are adapting to that change, it’s time to start a) worrying, and b) doing something about it. The idea isn’t even to eventually catch up, mind you. That’s a defensive position, a survival position. The idea is to actually get ahead of that change. That’s where the real competitive advantage is. Survival is a nice default position, sure; many businesses aren’t even there. But with only maybe 5% more thought and work than it would take to just play catch-up, you can shift from being just an “also in” company to becoming the leader in your industry or category inside of 5 years. That sort of surge in competitiveness doesn’t happen by accident. It takes will, foresight and initiative. That takes leadership. Real leadership. And sorry to have to tell you this, but real leaders make it a point to know their shit. “I don’t understand this new digital stuff” isn’t leadership. It’s an urgent call to action.

One last little media-related graphic to close today’s post and help you get your bearings:

Hopefully, this post will help you (or your boss) connect the dots between today and tomorrow a little bit. Something to think about: Becoming more “social” is only part of the shift that is taking place in media. It’s important, vital even, but without understanding how media as a whole is evolving, being “more social” probably won’t do most companies a whole lot of good. We’re seeing that already. There is a much bigger field, and the more of that field you and your senior leadership see, the better equipped you will be to not only survive the next decade but come out of it stronger and more competitive than ever. That’s the goal, right?

Plan beyond next quarter and/or year.

Get IT more involved in the day to day discussions that affect your business.

Revamp your HR’s hiring parameters.

You aren’t necessarily going to become a digital business, but your business does need to be as effective in the digital space as it is everywhere else. Welcome to the great reshuffling of the Fortune 5000 world.

Cheers,

Olivier

PS: I will be speaking about this in Brussels at the end of the month for Marketing Day Belgium. If you happen to be around and want to discuss this in greater detail during the Q&A or after the session, let me know. I look forward to it.

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If the Brandbuilder blog isn’t enough, Social Media ROI provides a simple, carry-everywhere real-world framework with which businesses of all sizes can develop, build and manage social media programs in partnership with digital agencies or all on their own. Do yourself a favor and check it out at www.smroi.net. Now available at fine bookstores everywhere. Also available in German, Japanese and Korean.

Click here to read a free chapter.

CEO-Read  –  Amazon.com  –  www.smroi.net  –  Barnes & Noble  –  Que

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